This year was...

“This year was the first time in decades where everyone involved in the power system realized we need to rapidly grow this thing again, and it was the last year where it could be assumed that would happen in a business as usual manner... Load growth is like an astronaut — it’s come back but it won’t be the same.”

“2024 shifted the Overton window on geoengineering. El Niño and La Niña gave us a sneak peek into a bleak near-future climate, while new research provided a clearer view of the scope and scale of inadvertent geoengineering. As a result, this year saw increased recognition that there is no risk-free choice on geoengineering; deliberate action carries risks, but deliberate inaction does as well.”

“2024 was a year of change, especially in the steel industry as more and more demand for clean, reliable, affordable energy became the driver of many conversations we had with customers.  Additionally, as policy changes, sectors that are focused on reducing carbon emissions have continued to look for solutions to help achieve their goals.  Through education and collaboration we are helping our customers meet their needs.”

“This year, federal programs like the Regional DAC Hubs and Department of Energy’s Purchase Prize continue to usher in the next era of carbon removal: deployment. Across the country, we are seeing exciting projects come online. The continued bipartisan support for carbon removal, as evidenced in part by the newly-introduced Carbon Dioxide Removal Investment Act, is a strong signal that the carbon removal industry is politically durable and on its way to gigaton scale.”

“This was the year we saw overall carbon credit purchases stay largely flat, and the ‘flight to quality’ emerge - we're seeing serious growth in the carbon removals sub-category. Buyers understand why high quality, rigorously quantified carbon removals are important, and are willing to pay the premium to avoid reputational risk. Most of the volume is coming from nature based removals projects. ‘Co-benefits’ matter more than ever. Buyers want to understand how their carbon removal purchases have knock on effects for biodiversity and social equity. Finally, AI and associated data center emissions have accelerated everything. The biggest tech companies are gearing up to procure more high quality removal credits than ever before.”

“This year was the first year we saw scalable, autonomous solutions that can rapidly restore vital ocean ecosystems—like seagrass—at costs and speeds we couldn’t imagine just a few years ago. This gives us a crucial tool in the fight against climate change and will be pivotal to restoring ocean health.”

“This was the year mycelium went mainstream - from Billie Eilish using mycelium foam earplugs on tour (GOB) to MyBacon hitting grocery stores coast-to-coast, all powered by a global network of farms growing Ecovative's hightech crops across three countries!”

“This year was heartbreaking for me as we had to lay off our team and wind down Nori, the carbon removal marketplace I cofounded in 2017. Like other carbon removal startups, we faced a challenging financing environment as investors retreated from the voluntary carbon market. Carbon removal is not optional. As a society, we absolutely must figure out how to remove many billions of tonnes of CO2 and do so continuously for essentially the rest of our time on Earth. I’m very proud of the contribution Nori made in moving the carbon removal industry forward and I cannot thank the many people who worked alongside us enough, from our team to our partners and customers, from our investors to our many supporters. I still believe in reversing climate change.”

"This year the business case for climate risk technologies came into focus. While the cost of natural disasters have been steadily rising for years the market for risk prediction and monitoring tools has lagged behind. With AI-enhanced models driving improved performance and new paths to market in insurance, risk management and compliance budgets, a new wave of companies is starting to find success."

“2024 was a year of tipping points, for good and ill.  In climate change, this is the year of three alarming factors:

1) Unexpectedly high temperatures persisting from 2023.  This is likely to be our second year in a row of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, which is ahead of most climate models. This unexpectedly fast warming may be related to El Nino, or to random variation, or to reduction in sulfur aerosols. It is likely to subside in 2025, but is still a matter of some concern.

2) Largest ever coral bleaching. Of all ecosystems on earth, coral reefs, home to the greatest concentration of biodiversity in the oceans, are quite possibly the most vulnerable to climate change. 2023 - 2024 has seen the most extensive coral reef bleaching in human history. This ecosystem may be the first to completely tip if humans don't intervene.

3) AMOC slowdown concern. Finally, the last two years have brought multiple studies that raise concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current - which keeps Europe far warmer than other parts of the world at the same latitude - is slowing and could collapse as soon as mid-century. This would be a massive catastrophe affecting a billion people.  And while we still have only a handful of studies and incomplete sensor data, the information we do have is alarming enough that we should be paying more attention to this tipping point risk.”

“In clean energy and climate mitigation, meanwhile, we are also seeing positive tipping points:

1) At or near the peak of fossil fuel carbon emissions. The International Energy Agency - historically quite conservative on the pace of clean energy - now finds that we are at or very near to the peak of fossil fuels, with coal and oil consumption set to start declining in the coming handful of years, and the methane consumption reaching a plateau.

2) Clean energy set to become the dominant energy source on planet earth. The same IEA World Energy Outlook finds that, even with no new policy, clean energy is set to become a larger energy source than oil, coal, or gas by the 2030s. And in a slightly faster scenario, clean energy will be larger than all fossil fuel sources combined by 2050.

3) A shot at 2C. A simplified model shows that, if we can bring emissions down to zero by 2080, we have a shot at holding warming to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures. If we can bring emissions down to zero by 2100, even with a plateau for the next decade or two, we can hold warming to less than 2.5 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures. These pathways are broadly consistent with the International Energy Agency's most recent (and still conservative) forecasts for clean energy and fossil emissions. 2.5C is neither a complete apocalypse nor a rosy scenario. It is a scenario where humanity can survive and thrive, but where there are severe harms to ecosystems and to many people, particularly the most vulnerable. It is the "messy middle". It represents progress, and yet we can and should do better.

4) Progress on the conversation on sunlight reflection. Finally, 2024 saw progress on discussions of - and some experimentation with - efforts to cool the earth by reflecting some sunlight into space. This topic has long been anathema on both the political right and left. In the last two years we've seen experiments with marine cloud brightening over Australia's Great Barrier Reef. We've seen the establishment of new academic departments and new global commissions devoted to this topic.  This is still nascent and insufficient action. If the world is serious about staying well below 2 degrees C of warming - let along holding the line at 1.5 C of warming - then the only viable path is to embrace and rapidly research, test, and evaluate the technologies of reflecting a tiny fraction of the incoming sunlight that warms this planet into space. This is the key missing technology in our arsenal of tools to manage the earth's climate.”

“This was the year the world came to grips with the inevitability of an energy transition while recognizing all forms of energy (dirty AND clean) will continue to be needed to meet global demand and allow the world’s poorest to improve their standards of living.”

"This is the year that the world got serious about the need to 4x the grid as it strains under the stress of massive load growth."

“This year was a critical turning point for advancing industrial decarbonization technologies like low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture. 2024 was the year that saw companies that are serious about moving these solutions forward move beyond commitments and pursue direct investments.”

"This year was another year full of exciting innovation reinforcing my belief that we can find adequate responses to anything when we dare."

“This was the year we went nuclear.”

“This year was a tipping point for grid-scale energy storage. Transitioning to a grid primarily powered by variable wind and solar energy was already a tall order under stable load conditions. But with the surge in demand driven by industrial policy and AI growth, grid reliability and decarbonization are increasingly at odds. Fortunately, energy storage is stepping up to bridge the gap by working alongside renewables to meet rising energy needs. Consequently, interest from capital providers and developers has never been higher for energy storage. Again, this year was just the tipping point, and I can’t wait to see what’s in store for grid-scale batteries in 2025 and beyond!”

“This year provided a difficult but healthy reckoning for nature-based innovation in CDR/VCM/climate more broadly. ZIRP funded a lot of stuff that was probably doomed from the start, and cycles are going to cycle. Some amazing companies have failed, some crummy companies have failed, and who knows if I can even tell the difference. Many more failures will come, and that's not something to get freaked out by!

The companies that survive over the long term will provide real economic value to key stakeholders sooner, and more durably, than companies who are primarily reliant on just one specific business model theory of change (e.g. "VCM is obviously going to the moon").

At the same time, the overall momentum for better solutions, especially in soil, continues unabated, and I'm heartened. I'm not sure it's fair to say the immediate-term commercial prospects for soil health-restoring companies are significantly stronger than a year ago, but certainly more folks agree that "business as usual" is a fucked way to do it. In my world, everybody agrees we have a soil carbon crises. Yay! Progress! The challenge is to figure out how to make money fixing it in an economy which has often proved structurally incapable of investing long-term solutions. That's the crux of it all now that the cheap money is long gone.”

“This year was when PJM’s capacity auction prices soared from $28.92/MW-day to $269.92/MW-day, a nearly ninefold increase reflecting increasing demand and tightening energy supply.”

“This year was a humbling reminder that that significant load growth is coming whether we like it or not (choose your adventure: AI data centers, EV adoption, electrification of heating/cooling, etc.) and we must relearn how to build infrastructure quickly and cost effectively in America.”

“This year was optimistic. We saw improvements in all energy transition indicators that I keep track of and are moving forward with decarbonizing major parts of the global economy. People should be excited and thrilled about the progress!

It's never been easier to build in climate, the basic economics that drive adoption are better every day and pulling more non-government money into the energy transition. This progress should inspire people to action! We need builders and doers, not more pundits. 2025 is a year to build and to accelerate the energy transition.”

“This year, we saw how the proliferation of affordable, clean energy is now catalyzing a second Industrial Revolution and bringing a new generation of manufacturing technologies to the forefront, including clean cement. Investments in this material enable the public and private sectors alike to reduce the embodied carbon of their infrastructure and grow new clean supply chains, while simultaneously strengthening the American manufacturing base and the quality jobs that come with it. The momentum here continues our country’s long tradition of growing innovations at home that the world will come to depend on — in this case manufacturing an essential building material but without the pollution that has plagued it for centuries.”

“This year was the year that climate tech became more about economic pragmatism and less about moral environmentalism. 

The tension between these narratives is not new (clean tech 1.0, ESG, etc). But 2024 saw VC funding dry up and Trump win the US election. Without capital flowing or the prospect of a climate-friendly administration, businesses were forced to focus on running healthy operations and driving socio-economic impact. 

Like Pacific Fusion, which emerged from stealth with $900M in funding and a mission to power the world with affordable clean energy—because ‘affordable energy drives prosperity.’

Or Heirloom, which announced its $150M Series B and said ‘[direct air captures] can only scale effectively to combat climate change if it is affordable.’ 

This is not a shocking concept. Climate tech companies are businesses, even if many of those who flock to it do so for moral and environmental reasons (myself among them). But they can’t do any good—economic or environmental—if they don’t make money.”

“This year was an inflection point. As we emphasized at DERvos, it felt like the year where the first principles thinking of the last decade slammed into the coming reality of the decade ahead. We are getting to see for the first time what the frontier looks like in practice: energy market mechanisms getting strained or altogether breaking because of high renewable concentration, load growth actually being back, DERs being renamed VPPs and getting taken seriously, China's now clear dominance of solar and storage manufacturing and the U.S.'s response via the IRA, etc etc.

It feels like the stage is set for the actual reality of energy markets to change, not just the theory of it.”

“This year we saw a new appetite for large infrastructure bets in nuclear and evidence that OEMs do not have the infrastructure to competitively build EVs. We also saw even more evidence that China is in a league of its own when it comes to rare earth mining and battery technology.”

“This year was one in which the free market continued to accelerate the adoption of sustainable technologies. The market is the only force that can sustain this transition at scale, and it’s already doing so, as many clean options are simply cheaper and better products.

There is no question the U.S. election result is a step backwards for emissions reduction and energy transition work, estimated to drive four or more gigatons of CO2 emissions relative to a Harris administration. But all is not lost. A lot of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will prove to be too popular to roll back, due to the fact that 80% of its money has gone to red districts. Most climate-tech companies will continue doing their thing, couched in the language of domestic manufacturing, job creation, energy independence, and reducing reliance on China.

Finally, a high beta prediction for 2025: due to increasing climate emergencies, technological advancements, insufficient emissions reductions, and lack of short-term U.S. federal support, 2025 may be a year of increased consideration of geoengineering. This would be a very contentious topic as ideas could move from fringe science, to mainstream conversations, to serious efforts being started. We’ll see!”

"This year was... one that required enormous patience and a need to dig deep in fundraising, both us and many (but not all) of the portfolio…This year was... potentially (and we're whispering it) but one where it feels like the world is finally actually starting to get that climate change is water change, and is beginning to act accordingly."

“This year was the one people will look back on as the birth year for Nature Tech.”

“This year was the year we saw SRM enter the wider conversation. This year was the year I abandoned the American Project. This year was another year where we pretended like sea level rise isn't happening ‘in my lifetime.’ This year was a shit show for community composting in NYC.”

"This was the year data centers propelled the decarbonization story forward by embracing renewable generation (shout out modular reactors!), pioneering energy-efficient technologies like liquid cooling, and setting bold sustainability goals that will shape the relationship between climate change and AI for the next decade."

“This year was imperative to set the foundation of AI’s role in working toward an ethical and sustainable food system. AI’s potential for improving operational efficiency has already been proven at scale. This year, we saw the food and beverage industry double down on AI as a productivity tool (aggregating and analyzing supply chain data, overcoming logistical and manufacturing hurdles) while further exploring its capabilities to innovate and drive radical industry change (formulating new sustainable recipes, finding more diverse ingredients substitutions, creating new ingredients).

I anticipate that AI will influence 90% of the food we consume within the next three years, whether it’s helping retailers and restaurants navigate the growing challenges of climate disclosure regulations or providing solutions for protecting global biodiversity. To get to that point, the food and beverage industry must continue experimenting with AI to discover new areas where the technology can drive meaningful change within the way we consume food and protect our natural resources.”

“Humanity [has] taken the first step toward isolating itself, and it would seem that we have taken many more steps in that direction, to the point that now we are isolating ourselves from one another. The final step would be to isolate ourselves from ourselves.”