The When, Where, Who, and Why of Methane Emissions

Hi there,

Today's Keep Cool edition is a syndication of a newsletter that I co-authored for The Overview, a biweekly dispatch on the world of methane and super pollutants. If you want to learn more about everything that drives global warming not named carbon dioxide, about solutions that can slow warming much more quickly than CO2 mitigation can, and ones that make economic sense and cents (as they inherently must for adoption based on the world we live in), sign up for more future editions here. 

The newsletter leverages data and visualizations from Visualizing Energy, a great resource to have on your radar. Plus, that means there are a lot of pretty pictures! Double plus: There’s zilch in here about U.S. politics; plenty of that to go around elsewhere.

DATA DEEP DIVE

Before we dive in, If you’re unfamiliar with Visualizing Energy, a data analysis, visualization, and media project born out of the Institute for Global Sustainability at Boston University. Directed by Dr. Cutler J. Cleveland, Visualizing Energy produces data-driven analyses and stories that crystallize dynamics inherent to the energy transition and climate change. All visualizations used in this newsletter were created by Visualizing Energy and are used with their permission. We highly recommend signing up for their newsletter for more great visualizations and content, which you’ll get a taste of below.

The top line

Today, we’ll leverage the visualizations from Visualizing Energy to offer some new ways of breaking down and looking at the ‘when, where, who, and why’ of human-caused methane emissions and how to use this data for action. If you’re curious about the “what,” you can refer to our past writing on why methane emissions matter here and here. Here’s a quick recap:

• Methane has driven upwards of 20% of global warming since the Industrial Revolution (maybe 30%!) Yet, it receives a sliver of total climate finance.

• Compare that to, say, aviation. Aviation is often discussed as a driver of global warming—and it is! It has driven roughly 4% of global warming so far (and only ~60% or so of that is from CO2; nitrous oxide and water vapor account for the rest). That’s less than 1/5th the warming methane emissions have driven.

• The world spent more than $2 trillion on energy transition-related endeavors in 2024, a new high watermark. I did some back-of-the-napkin math and research (assisted by AI), and spending on aviation decarbonization in 2024 was roughly comparable to spending on all methane mitigation and monitoring efforts. Bit of a mismatch! (both received somewhere between $20 and $30 billion). The aviation $$$ has also yielded few to slow results so far, though we can grant some grace here. These things take time.

Reducing methane emissions is also one of the best ways to slow global warming quickly. Why? Because atmospheric methane is much shorter-lived than carbon dioxide (Methane typically oxidizes into CO2 in roughly a decade, whereas CO2 can linger in the atmosphere for many hundreds of years). Reduce methane emissions → realize a much faster reduction in atmospheric concentrations (which is what drives warming) compared to CO2 → reduce warming more quickly.

Ilissa Ocko led research estimates that reducing methane emissions by 30% could slow global warming by 0.25° C by 2050. Given warming is accelerating and last year breached the 1.5°C Paris Accord target, 0.25° C of relief would offer welcome ‘breathing room.’ As we’ll explore, 30% methane reductions may well also be quite tenable—especially as we reorient around the fact that mitigative solutions must first and foremost be economic.

With the above in mind, focusing on methane and the question of how we might allocate more capital if we had it (and encourage said capital allocation), let’s dig into some data visualizations to better inform ourselves.

The When: Methane emissions are rising faster than ever before

Methane emissions–60% of which are ‘human-caused’–have risen since the Industrial Revolution and keep hitting record highs. Atmospheric methane concentrations have more than doubled since the Industrial Revolution (at a faster rate on a percentage growth basis than carbon dioxide). Human-caused methane emissions have grown globally and cross-sectorally over the past five decades. Some sectors have grown more than others; fugitive emissions from oil and gas have been more stable than, say, enteric fermentation-driven emissions, as more advanced technologies to detect leaks and reductions to upstream flaring reduce fugitive emissions, whereas little is being done at present to reduce (at least at scale) to reduce methane emissions from ruminants.

The Where: The sectors emitting the most methane

The simplest way to break down human-caused methane emissions sources is into three sectors: Agriculture (animals and farming), energy, and waste (landfills and wastewater treatment).

Agriculture—led by enteric fermentation (cow and other ruminant animal burps) dominates, though energy and waste are no slouches.

The Who: The biggest global emitters

Within these three sectors, where in the world are the emissions actually coming from? The darker shades of blue in the below pinpoint methane emissions “hotspots,” which often also map to countries that produce and use a lot of energy or have significant agricultural industries, such as the United States, China, India, Brazil, and Russia.

The darker shades of blue in the map pinpoint methane emissions “hotspots,” countries that produce and use a lot of energy or have significant agricultural industries, such as the United States, China, India, Brazil, and Russia. Visualized differently below:

From there, we can add the numbers…

…and then build sectors by country back in to arrive at novel insights concerning how countries can have dramatically different ‘compositions’ of sector-specific methane emissions sources. The below compares the share of human-caused methane emissions in 2022 by sector for the five highest emitting countries.

Why does this matter? It illustrates that mitigating methane emissions is not a one-size-fits-all challenge at the national level. In Brazil? There are 200 million cows, which burp out a lot of methane to regulate their digestive system. In Russia? Methane emissions predominantly stem from the oil and gas sector—Russia has and is well known for its oil and gas industry.

The Why: Methane emissions are a global challenge, not just a U.S. problem

The data highlights that methane emissions are rising at an alarming rate, with anthropogenic sources responsible for 60% of the increase. The U.S. is a major contributor, but it is far from the sole culprit – China, India, Brazil, and Russia also play significant roles. Moreover, methane emissions arise from different sectors depending on the country.

• Agriculture dominates in Brazil due to enteric fermentation from cattle (there are 200 million or so cattle in Brazil).

• Energy is the primary source of methane emissions in Russia, specifically fugitive emissions from oil and gas operations.

• Waste management contributes more significantly in urbanized and industrialized nations.

This variation underscores that a one-size-fits-all mitigation strategy won’t work. Effective solutions must be tailored to each country’s primary sources of methane emissions.

The bottom line: A global approach to methane mitigation

1) Technology developed in the U.S. must have a global focus: While the U.S. is a leader in methane detection and reduction innovation, this technology must be designed for scalable global implementation. This means:

• Developing cost-effective solutions that also ‘work’ in lower-income nations

• Guiding other countries on how their regulatory frameworks might support the adoption of U.S.-developed tech more readily (also a win for U.S. tech developers)

• Encouraging public-private partnerships to fund and distribute tech worldwide

2) Shifting methane mitigation beyond U.S. borders: Global methane reduction strategies should integrate:

• International funding and incentives to support methane mitigation in developing nations, where it’s even less of a priority than in many more developed countries.

• Sector-specific solutions, like methane inhibitors for livestock in Brazil

• Policy coordination, collaboration, and knowledge-sharing: some U.S. oil majors already produce much lower-methane-emission oil and gas than smaller operators or other countries on average. How might they help others catch up?

3) Messaging matters: Again, methane mitigation receives ~2% of climate finance despite contributing to up to 30% of global warming. At a certain point, with that much of a disconnect, you have to (or should) ask why. Stronger data-driven storytelling can:

• Increase public awareness and political will for methane action

• Underscore the ‘win-win’ economic + environmental opportunities

• Concretize global commitments (not just announcements) that prioritize methane emissions reductions as an increasingly valuable lever in a rapidly warming world

The net-net

Methane mitigation is one of the fastest ways to slow global warming, and while the U.S. plays a key role, real progress requires a global, collaborative effort. The solutions exist; we’ve covered many extensively. Many are also economically viable, not just environmentally friendly. What’s it going to take to build the strategy, compelling messaging, investment proportionate to the opportunity, and collective will to scale them globally and quickly? We’ll keep asking ourselves that question iteratively, day by day.

We hope you find these visualizations useful, use them liberally, and share them with others. As Dr. Cleveland graciously told us, “That’s what we [Visualizing Energy] want!”

— This newsletter is brought to you by Lauren Singer and Nick van Osdol