NYC Climate Week bingo card

Hey there,

Next week is NYC Climate Week, which will be quite busy for many of us, myself included. Hence, this newsletter is neither that long, nor will I send one next Thursday (though those of you who are ~ highly engaged ~ with this newsletter will get something special).

What I will offer today is a sort of checklist—or ‘bingo card’ if you will—of topics that I think should be discussed more at events like Climate Week, but that won’t necessarily be. Whether or not you plan to attend NYC Climate Week, I figure it’s helpful to open source things that are on my mind regarding climate and the energy transition.

OPINION

We can all likely guess some of the topics that will come up at most events: 

• AI (what in climate and energy is it useful for?) and data center electricity demand. 

• How worried we should be about funding slowdowns and the election in the U.S.

• How it is, indeed, getting hotter around the world. 

Here are some topics I’m more interested in. If you’re a guest, moderator, or a speaker at events at Climate Week—or other settings—feel free to take em’ or push others on em’.

Short list

1. Super pollutants; not so “super” resource allocation

2. DERs amplify cybersecurity risks

3. Tech advances that neutralize incumbent advantages

4. Beyond greenhouse gasses and global warming

5. Are China and India in the room?

6. Safety and standard-setting in an innovative world

7. Taking a break?

More detail

I won’t go into exhaustive detail on all seven topics. I’ll go deeper on a few than others. If you have more questions or ideas, feel free to email me back.

1. Super pollutants; not so “super” resource allocation

I’ve written about this a lot elsewhere, but it’s worth restating. Yes, carbon dioxide is a significant driver of global warming and is the most important warming driver over the long term, given its long atmospheric life. That said, it’s only about half the story in terms of observed warming so far. Other pollutants have driven the other half of warming (see below), and these get less discussion and less resource allocation (the latter being a product of the former to an extent).

You can read more about this concept here.

2. DERs amplify cybersecurity risks

The power grid is transforming from a centralized model—where generation was managed across a few central ''nodes'' and large-scale power plants—to a more ''convergent'' one, where there are perhaps millions of grid-connected devices across certain markets and jurisdictions that can generate, store, and dynamically respond to grid dynamics. This amplifies cybersecurity risk for many reasons:

1. Much of the power grid is still old. Utilities and other stakeholders are in the process of digitizing the grid before you even start talking about DERs or energy transition.

2. As more devices are connected to the grid / the internet, there's literally more vulnerable attack surface area for bad actors, and a lot of it is supposed to be 

3. The level of connectivity and software deployment a more distributed grid will require is its own risk, as it means more software (risk) and more interconnection (risk)

4. There are many more stakeholders involved in energy generation, storage, and distribution than before, and many of them are new entrants who aren't used to dealing with attacks the way utilities are

Earlier this year, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) highlighted that, on average, the devices or ''nodes'' in electrical networks at risk of cybersecurity threats increase by 60 devices or ''nodes'' per day.

This is the type of risk that should be part and parcel of every power grid, especially DER-focused conversations. But it isn't usually, at least not in my experience. Utilities are definitely aware of it, as they already deal with cybersecurity threats and attacks daily. But, again, this risk area could ''explode'' exponentially if and as DERs scale.

Hope I'm wrong both around the risk growing and it not featuring prominently in conversations. It's also probably a great place to build a business, honestly.

3. Tech advances that neutralize incumbent advantages

IBM missed PCs. Intel is struggling because it missed GPUs (and a million other things). Similarly, incumbent auto manufacturers often struggle with EVs because EVs are fundamentally software-led products rather than hardware-led ones. They have far fewer moving parts than internal combustion engines, and as autonomous driving becomes more prominent in the future, the emphasis on software (and, again, cybersecurity) will become even more pronounced. Legacy manufacturers like Ford have struggled mightily compared to incumbents like Tesla as a result; in the past, when they tried to outsource software development for EVs, that didn’t go well. 

We see this dynamic, where a technological shift or innovation neutralizes incumbent advantages in favor of new entrants, constantly across industries. It’s a form of creative destruction. So… where else is this happening? Where might it happen soon?

4. Beyond greenhouse gasses and global warming

As I wrote before the start of this year:

Let it suffice to link back to that piece from December and say there are many problems beyond warming that ladder up to “climate,” the same way there are many drivers of biodiversity loss that aren’t named global warming. That isn’t to say warming isn’t seminally important—it is. Rather, there are many other areas of focus, whether biodiversity, water, land use change, or other types of pollution, and more that deserve more attention and resource allocation.

5. Are China and India in the room?

Going back to greenhouse gas emissions for a second, at least through 2050 and perhaps through 2100, the majority of greenhouse gas emissions will come from countries like China and India. Yes, it’s essential that the U.S. and Europe decarbonize as well. And yes, there’s a huge opportunity to export innovation to places like China and India (and also Africa, especially as some countries in Africa become the epicenter of new population growth), i.e., to prove what works in the U.S. or elsewhere and to then share that knowledge and know-how liberally.

Still, if we aren’t constantly pressure-testing conversations in the Western world with a perspective on what it would take to spur adoption elsewhere, we’re doing ourselves a bit of a disservice if global impact and planetary health are our goal. More on that here.

Nor is this only relevant to greenhouse gasses. 90%+ of plastic pollution in waterways and the ocean stems from ten rivers worldwide, none of which are in the U.S. or Europe (as of 2017, at least). See below and here for more information.

6. Safety and standard-setting in an innovative world

Across all the hardware and software innovation happening, not to mention deployment, there’s a whole world of ‘TIC’ services, namely testing, inspection and certification, as well as standard setting and development, that matters. A sustainable energy transition is a safe one. While electrification is important to transition off fossil fuels, electrified hardware, including lithium-ion batteries, as one example, does introduce new risks, like fire, that kill people (including in New York City). This doesn’t make them worse or untenable technologies, as some detractors might suggest. It’s just another dimension that should be on everyone’s radar.

Simultaneously, there are $10B companies you’ve likely never heard of who specialize in doing little else than testing, inspection, certification, and standard setting for all imaginable types of hardware. These companies exist to pressure test new products as manufacturers develop them, to make sure they’re safe, operate properly under normal conditions and foreseeable abnormal conditions, and more. They also collaborate across stakeholders to advance new standards for things like (again), cybersecurity.

One challenge if you’re one of these organizations or one of its clients is how to ensure testing, inspection, certification, and standard-setting, as well as new standard development, keep up with the pace of innovation across both hardware and software. Given the pace of technological innovation happening re: the energy transition, I imagine there’s a lot of ‘on the back foot’ vibes out there in this domain.

7. Taking a break?

When was the last time you took a break? Like, really? In my case, the answer is years at this point. I need to re-read and take my own medicine on what sustainability really means. It's not just the 'green' stuff. It's taking care of ourselves too, because, well, at the minimum, we're all trying to be somewhat useful cogs in the machine, trying to make the 'machine' more 'green' while we continue to operate within it and it lumbers and lurches along.

NYC Climate Week is the epitome of freneticism in this ‘industry.' There are hundreds of events and many thousands of people vying for your attention. So, if you're not coming—kudos. That's cool. If you are coming (and this is directed at me as much as it is at you), perhaps the question most worth coming home to iteratively is, are we behaving sustainably in service of sustainability? Most people I know in climate tech and energy seem to be fraying at the seams right now. Ideally, that’s not true for everyone. Still, if it is for you, it’s not an endictment as much as an extension of emphathy and an invitation. Namely, to consider whether we’re thinking of and prioritizing ourselves too little.

PODCAST

In case you missed it, our latest podcast episode has Nick and Tim Hill, the General Manager of Sustainability Solutions for Nucor Corporation, discuss how Nucor became one of the largest steel producers and recyclers in the world. Further, and perhaps most importantly, they discuss the circular and electricity-powered process that produces steel with fewer emissions. 

Catch up with your listening here.

JOBS

Hydro-Meteorological Satellite Applications Specialist, Rainmaker

Rainmaker, an early-stage company focused on climate resilience and adaptation by developing and deploying cloud seeding technology (literally making it rain more), needs a stellar candidate to acquire, process, and analyze satellite data for meteorological applications. The ideal Hydro-Meteorological Satellite Applications Specialist has a deep understanding of satellite remote sensing principles, meteorological processes, and data analysis techniques. The specialist will work closely with meteorologists, data scientists, and engineers to develop and implement advanced data processing algorithms and workflows. The role is based in Boulder, Colorado.

More here, as well as a previous podcast from yours truly w/ the founder and CEO here.

If you do hear discussion of these topics, LMK. I’d be curious to hear where they crop up. Have a good climate week wherever you are.

P.S., if you read this far, I’m hosting a semi-secretive happy hour on Wednesday night in Williamsburg. Respond for details. See some of you there ;)

— Nick