Don't panic

Hi,

Hope your weekend was alright, if not perhaps great.

ICYMI, I blogged my lil’ heart out on Thursday about America’s foundational governance systems and how flattening being confronted with blatant injustice can be personally. In service of bipartisanship, the one addendum I’d add to that long note is that I was also very angry when our last President preemptively and unconditionally pardoned his son.

I’ll keep this email more succinct as a result, even though there’s no shortage of market news I could pop off on for another 6,000 words.

ONE STORY IN A (COUPLE OF) SENTENCE(S) AND A CHART

• 8 days ago, I added a lead story section about how staggering Waymo’s ascendance as a leader in autonomous (electric) mobility has been. It’s my good fortune and pleasure to update some of the figures I shared from the very source I referenced, namely Nat Bullard (see below; & thanks for sending my way, Nat!). Certainly seems like Waymo could make good on my bet that “some time (my own sic) next year in 2026, Waymo could do 1 million paid, autonomous, all-electric rides weekly. And keep s-curving…from there.”

LEAD STORY; S CURVE IN REVERSE

In a past life, I wore a suit and did macroeconomic and public equity finance things. So, I could very easily opine at length about what the route in markets—whether equity, commodity, or otherwise—over the past week or so “means” and, probably more importantly, does not necessarily mean. I’ll restrain myself a bit to say three main things:

1. Ignore the stock market to start. I’m more interested in what commodity markets, i.e., the prices of oil, copper, gold, etc… are doing. For instance, oil (I’m referencing Brent vs. WTI, as Brent is a more global benchmark for “light, sweet crude”) is down about $12, or 16% in days. Second, resist the urge to interpret what the market is “trying to say.” Rather, ask what this price action will do. One nigh-certainty? Short to medium-term, lower oil prices are a massive disincentive for oil and gas producers to invest in the riskier side of the supply chain, namely exploration and extraction of new oil and gas deposits. Why? Well, it’s risky! You put up a lot of upfront capital with much less of a guarantee of any financial payoff. If you’re an oil and gas company, you are almost always more incentivized to do so at a) higher prices and b), again, perhaps more importantly, less volatile prices. Both the speed and magnitude of the sell-off matter here and are diametrically opposed to any short to medium-term promise of “drill baby drill.”

   1. Heatmap News wrote well about this topic this week as well (read here)

   2. OPEC+ also agreed to raise supply more than previously expected beginning in May, aiming to add 411,000 barrels per day to the global oil market. That puts even more pressure on global oil prices.

2. If you do want to think about what markets are “trying to say,” don’t necessarily assume market action is directly or even predominantly attributable to a single event. Who said for sure the sell-off is predominantly about tariffs? Sure, a single event can be a catalyst. But how many 10-20% lurches did markets go through between 2008-2011 before people understood what was really most rotten under the hood? For one example, it took Lehman Brothers stock a year and a half to trade down to $0 after its first 15% sell-off. I’m not saying we’re going for a 2008 meltdown, and beware anyone who pedals you certainty about what happens next. Markets could be back at all-time highs in six months for all I know. But in the same way that attributing any one weather event or natural disaster directly to climate change is bad climate science/communication, attributing moves in trillion-dollar markets to single “stories” is bad analysis. That short-term reactivity invariably gets in the way of structural and systematic thinking, let alone the actions that might drive better long-term outcomes aligned with how very complex beasts, like entire economies or Earth’s climate systems, actually work.

3. As far as any actionable individual or start-up / corporate takeaways are concerned, while I’m in no position to advise you and you didn’t ask, my reminder to myself, even as someone quite good historically at “active” investing, has been:

   1. If you’re not a multi-millionaire and are concerned about the economy…

   2. …your best, first, trades are typically not in financial markets.

   3. Rather, they’re to reduce expenses, diversify/reinforce your income, to log off, and avoid hysterical media, whether social, institutional, or otherwise.

No, a splash of sanity and sobriety will not win me a larger audience, at least not quickly. But I share #3 above as it is literally what I am doing; my biggest financial move in recent months, driven in no small part by mounting macro uncertainty, was to sublet my apartment in New York from May to September, reducing my annual expenses by ~25%+.

A la my headline, which was not a joke at all but rather quite serious, that’s all just my attempt to “say what I do.” Decidedly not an attempt to make you do what I say.

A FEW OTHER STORIES BEYOND THE ABOVE (AND BEYOND TARIFFS)

THE GOOD

• Global coal-fired power capacity additions in 2024 were at their lowest level in 20 years, according to the Global Energy Monitor. To be sure, the world’s coal fleet is still growing, predominantly in China and India (together, they account for 60%+ of global coal use. China's 30.5 gigawatts of newly commissioned coal power capacity last year accounted for 70% of the global total. Link.

• Finland's last coal-fired power and heat plant in active production shut down permanently. Finland's renewable power capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, leading to a collapse in coal use after a 2019 law banned coal from 2029. Link.

• Australia's Albanese government announced a $2.3 billion plan to put more than one million home batteries in Australian homes, businesses, and community facilities by 2030. The program will slash the upfront cost of a typical 11.5 kWh battery by about 30% ($4,000), aiming to reduce energy bills and support the nation's renewable energy transition. While one in three Australian households now have solar, only one in 40 has a battery. Link.

• Japan's $1.7 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund issued new guidelines backing sustainability-related investments as crucial to long-term returns. The fund sees managing environmental and social issues as fundamental to its strategy, rejecting the shift by other asset managers to downgrade or remove green commitments. Link.

• Tariffs got you looking for American-made goods? GE Vernova produced more than half of the turbines needed for the SunZia Wind project in New Mexico. When completed in 2026, the 2.4 gigawatt project will be the largest onshore wind farm in the Western Hemisphere. Link.

• Similar to the above, here’s a retweet of a deep dive we wrote on Nucor, America’s largest steelmaker, which doesn’t operate a single blast furnace! Link.

• Lennar and Dandelion Energy have pledged to build ground-source geothermal into more than 1,500 new homes in Colorado over the next two years. The partnership aims to make geothermal heat pumps as affordable as traditional HVAC systems in new construction by drilling hundreds of boreholes at once across cleared land before building houses. Link.

• Dow and small reactor startup X-energy submitted a construction permit application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission with plans to power a major Dow plant in Texas. The companies say the project would be the first grid-scale reactor to power a North American industrial site and aim to have it running by the early 2030s. As always re: new nuclear in the U.S., I laud the ambition and am skeptical of the timeline. Link.

• Mill, the food recycling startup founded by Nest co-founder Matt Rogers, says it has generated more than $20 million in revenue over the trailing 12 months and is launching a workplace business to expand beyond households. Link (paywall).

• Bipartisanship! New polling shows Americans view ensuring a reliable water supply as their top issue, beating out inflation and healthcare reform. The majority of participants support bond measures and higher local water bills to improve water infrastructure. The polling comes as federally supported infrastructure projects are part of many projects paused under the Trump administration's funding freeze. Link.

THE INBETWEENS

• Authorities in China issued the first permits for autonomous passenger drones, allowing EHang Holdings and Hefei Hey Airlines to conduct unmanned passenger flights. The certification paves the way for flying taxi services, starting with short-distance routes for tourism. China's "low-altitude economy" is expected to be worth 1.5 trillion yuan ($207 billion) by 2025. I’ve been beating this drum, as U.S. companies are making plenty of progress on eVTOLs. But it looks like China will beat the U.S. to the punch here, too. Link.

• The Trump administration aims to catalyze the construction of a new AI data center on federal land by the end of this year, according to an internal memo. The DOE has identified 16 potential sites across the U.S. where data centers and new power plants could be built. The plan is to switch these facilities on by the end of 2027 to maintain America's "global AI dominance." Link.

• EnergySage data shows that home solar buyers are increasingly asking for Tesla Powerwall alternatives as brand damage extends to Tesla's battery energy storage business. From January 1-19, about 73% of homeowners selected a battery quote that included the Tesla Powerwall, dropping to 64% between January 20 and March 10. 68% of customers specifically requested a Tesla alternative. Link.

• China discovered a large oilfield in the South China Sea with reserves of more than 100 million tons. The Huizhou 19-6 oilfield sits off the coast of Shenzhen in very deep waters. While the country's demand for oil-based fuels has been declining due to its rapid transition to EVs, demand is still growing for oil used in plastics and textiles. Link.

THE BAD

• According to new research from BloombergNEF, clean energy investments lag defense spending worldwide, save for, you guessed it, in China. The world's second-biggest economy spent 4.5% of its GDP on the energy transition last year, more than double the global average, while its defense budget accounted for just 1.3% of GDP. Link.

• U.S. energy infrastructure received a D+ grade from the American Society of Civil Engineers, down from the C- it received in 2021. ASCE cited a shortage of distribution transformers, increases in severe weather events, and a lack of transmission capacity as challenges facing the U.S. grid. ASCE noted utilities will need to double existing transmission capacity to connect new renewable sources (not happening, sorry). Link.

• Tesla reported 336,681 vehicle deliveries in Q1 2025, a 13% decline from a year ago and well below analyst expectations. The company has faced factory shutdowns to upgrade manufacturing lines, as well as protests and boycotts in response to CEO Elon Musk's political involvement. Tesla's market share in Europe declined to 9.3% from 17.9% year-over-year. Its stock price is also down more than 50% from recent highs. Link.

• Florida's Senate approved a bill to prohibit weather-modification projects that it broadly classified as contributing to "chemtrails." The measure would ban injecting chemicals into the atmosphere, with third-degree felony charges and fines up to $100,000 for violations. This hurts startups ranging from those focused on solar radiation management to cloud seeding to enhance precipitation. Link.

• Aspiration Partners, which offered “climate-friendly banking tools for consumers,” filed for bankruptcy weeks after its co-founder was arrested on fraud charges. The company, which had also arranged carbon credit deals for Meta, Microsoft, and other large corporations, has about $170 million in outstanding debt and raised $865 million across seven funding rounds. Link.

• From 1980 to 2017, surface oxygen levels in lakes dropped by 5.5%, while deep waters plummeted by 18.6%. Global warming accounts for 55% of the oxygen loss, while algal blooms contribute another 10%. The study analyzed 15,535 lakes, finding that over 80% show reduced oxygen levels. The decline threatens aquatic life, with mass die-offs observed in various regions. Link.

CURATED DEALS

Larger funding rounds:

• Fairmat, based out of Paris, raised €51.5 million (~$56.6 million) in Series B funding for its advanced carbon composite recycling technology. Bpifrance and Slate VC co-led. Link.

• Aetherflux, based out of San Carlos, CA, and founded by Robinhood co-founder Baiju Bhatt, raised $50 million in Series A funding to develop a network of small satellites designed to collect solar energy in space and transmit it back to Earth via infrared lasers. It notes it will focus on providing energy to military operations. Index Ventures and Interlagos co-led. Link.

Medium-sized funding rounds:

• Gradyent, based out of Rotterdam, Netherlands, raised €28 million (~$30.8 million) in Series B funding for its AI-powered digital twin platform that helps building owners and operators optimize heating and cooling networks. Blue Earth Capital led. Link.

• WeeFin, based out of Paris, raised €25 million (~$27.5 million) in Series B funding for its ESG data management platform. BlackFin Capital Partners led. Link.

• Syzygy Plasmonics, based out of Houston, held a $24.5 million first close of a planned $35 million bridge round to produce low-carbon chemicals and fuels. The company has shifted away from hydrogen production towards sustainable aviation fuel, given substantial headwinds in the hydrogen sector. The company also laid off a substantial number of employees back in February. Link (paywall).

• Persefoni AI, based out of Tempe, Arizona, raised a $23 million Series C extension for its “carbon footprint & sustainability reporting tools. TPG Rise, Rice Investment Group, Clearvision Ventures, NGP Energy Technology Partners, Prelude Ventures, and others participated. Link.

• Ecoat, based out of Grasse, France, raised over €21 million (~$23.1 million) to make more environmentally friendly, bio-based paint binders used in paint. Yotta Capital, the European Circular Bioeconomy Fund, Starquest, and the French Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME) invested. Link.

• Maverick Metals, based out of San Antonio, TX, raised $19 million in equity funding led by Olive Tree Capital for its “advanced metal extraction and minerals processing” technologies (particularly focused on copper). Link.

• Fourier, based out of Palo Alto, came out of stealth with $18.5 million in Series A funding to develop modular hydrogen electrolyzers for industrial customers. The round was co-led by General Catalyst and Paramark Ventures. Link.

• Fairly Made, based out of Paris, raised €15 million (~$16.5 million) in Series B funding for its “traceability, ecodesign, and consumer transparency” SaaS tools for the fashion industry. BNP Paribas Solar Impulse Venture Fund, GET Fund, ETF Partners, and Frenchfounders participated. Link.

• Bloom Biorenewables, based out of Fribourg, raised CHF 13 million (~$15.3 million) in Series A funding to transform biomass to produce otherwise petroleum-based products. Anaïs Ventures and Valquest Partners co-led. Link.

• BetterFleet, based out of Toronto, raised $15 million from Aligned Climate Capital, Ecosystem Integrity Fund, and Remarkable Ventures Climate for its EV fleet management software. Link.

• Caldera, based out of Hampshire, U.K., raised £10 million (~$13 million) from German industrial giant GEA to scale its low-carbon heating technology for industrial applications. Link.

Smaller funding rounds:

• Montamo, based out of Munich, raised €6 million (~$6.6 million) in seed funding to install heat pumps for manufacturers. Alter Equity led. Link.

• Dops Recycling Technologies, based out of Alkmaar, Netherlands, raised €5 million (~$5.5 million) in seed funding for its “Direct Carbon Immobilization (DCI™) technology… [that] converts waste into valuable raw materials without significant CO₂ emissions.” Rotterdam Energy Transition Fund, Rom InWest, North Holland Innovation Fund, Init Power, CarbonFix, and Alphatron participated. Link.

• LeakZon, based out of Tel Aviv, raised $5 million in Series A funding for its “AI platform that drastically reduces the water loss rate by analyzing your network’s data and providing meaningful insights on your water network (Also Known as Community Water Network – CWS).” Peal Holdings led. Link.

• Next Generation Robotics, based out of Pisa, Italy, raised €4.5 million (~$5 million) in Series A funding to “[provide] fleet management and optimization solutions for the modern automated warehouse”. CDP Venture Capital led. Link.

• Fiberdom, based out of Vantaa, Finland, raised €3.5 million (~$3.9 million) in equity funding to turn wood fibers into a plastic-free, circular “supermaterial.” Heino Group, Nordic Foodtech VC, and Holdix Oy participated. Link.

• Algae Factory, based out of Göteborg, Sweden, raised €3 million (~$3.3 million) in equity funding to “[cultivate] the algae group diatoms and extracts its high-tech silica shells for use in different applications.” Chalmers Ventures led. Link.

• EVident Battery, based out of Westford, Massachusetts, raised $3.2 million in seed funding for its battery inspection solutions. Ibex Investors led. Link.

• OpenTug, based out of Seattle, raised $2.2 million in equity funding for its maritime logistics software platform. TMV led. Link.

• Northwind Climate, based out of Boston, raised a $1.1 million pre-seed round for its “data-driven SaaS platform delivers proprietary business intelligence to companies to help maximize the return on their climate tech and sustainability investments.” Investors included Tom Steyer, Deval Patrick, and Alexander Hoffmann. Link.

• Avoxt, based out of Eindhoven, Netherlands, raised north of €1 million (~$1.1 million) for its membrane-free electrolyzer technology for hydrogen production. Future Tech Ventures and the Brabant Startup Fund invested. Link.

• NeedEnergy, based out of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, raised $1.1 million in equity funding to scale its AI-powered virtual power plant platform in Zimbabwe. Investisseurs & Partenaires (I&P) and Gaia Impact Fund invested. Link.

• CinSOIL, based out of Berlin, raised an undisclosed amount of pre-seed funding for its AI- and satellite-powered MRV tool designed to support soil carbon insetting. Link.

Other funding rounds

• Brookfield Infrastructure Partners will acquire the owner of the Colonial Pipeline (which carries various fossil fuels), which spans 5,500 miles from Houston to New York, for around $9 billion (including debt). Link.

• European refiner Varo Energy has agreed to buy Preem AB (a Swedish refiner) in a deal that will make it the region's second-largest producer of renewable fuels. The acquisition boosts Varo's conventional oil-refining capacity to about 530,000 barrels a day and gives it a total renewable fuel production capacity of 1.3 million tons annually. Link.

• LG Energy Solutions (South Korea) will pay $2 billion to assume full control of its Michigan EV battery joint venture with General Motors. The deal comes as Asian battery giants continue to invest heavily in production, even as U.S. peers scale back. Link.

• Silicon Ranch, based out of Nashville, received a $500 million commitment from European infrastructure investor AIP Management to expand its solar and battery projects across the U.S. and Canada. Link.

• Divert and Nuveen announced more than $90 million in financing to scale infrastructure for food system circularity in the southeast U.S. (including reverse logistics for wasted food, anaerobic digesters, and more). The investment provides funding specifically for Divert's facility in Lexington, North Carolina, which, at full capacity, could process 100,000 tons of food a year. Link.

Funds

• Construct Capital, based out of D.C., raised a $300 million fund, its third, targeting early-stage startups in areas like manufacturing, logistics and transportation, defense, and energy. Link.

OTHER ‘COOL’ STUFF

Pursuant, once again, to the carbon removal-focused article Paul Gambill and I wrote a few weeks ago, Paul wrote a great follow-on piece in the Carbon Herald. The title—”Carbon Removal’s Fundamental Scaling Problem: It’s The Market Design”—offers plenty of indication as to the content and whether you may want to dive in. Post here.

Keep your head up! Eyes forward, step by step…

– Nick