Autonomous transit out the a**

Hi,

My usually nigh-impervious immune system, indubitably the product of generations of the hardy German farmer stock that is half my lineage, gave out properly on Friday. So I’ll keep it shortish upfront here. I still managed to get out a bit for what was a lovely spring weekend in New York. Hope you enjoyed the weekend too.

Here’s the news from last week across the space that caught my attention:

♡ If you find this work valuable, you can support it here. I put a lot of heart into it. ♡

PRE-EARTH DAY SEND PRESENTED BY VERITREE 

Tuesday (4/22) is Earth Day. I'm not personally a huge proponent of newfangled dedicated observation. Like "National Poetry Month," which also happens to be April, even though I love poetry. I’m certainly not a huge fan on paper of a single day for the Earth. But I won't bore you with the 5,000-word essay on why; the cinderella’s-perfect-shoe-fit-esque slip-in for ever-more advertising is probably reasonably evident to most.

Still, I can simultaneously appreciate the value of the Earth Day vibes to inspire fresh, thoughtful, iterative, intentional, attentional consideration of how we can be of service.

Here’s one invitation I haven't highlighted previously: Check out veritree. Its tech-driven platform makes nature-based investments that are actually verifiable; they don't just plant trees, they track the social and environmental impact of their work, and make that data and story transparent for your company and stakeholders, too.

You can watch a 1-minute video from veritree's team on how they bring transparency and accountability to reforestation.

→ Reach out here to get your company involved in real restoration.

ONE STORY IN A SENTENCE AND A CHART

• Bloomberg ran a piece this week that corroborated* the carbon removal piece Paul Gambill and I penned on the carbon removal industry’s “monosopny” problem (the original Keep Cool piece catalyzed considerable conversation) and added some helpful data and charts that crystallize the market’s buyer concentration challenge. Link.

*The piece is perhaps a bit overly close to ours, sans attribution… but hey, my heart is too full and my head too busy for there to be more room in my system for too much pettiness ;). Suffice it to say, you can count on getting ahead of many stories here before the big outlets that sell lots of ads and conference tickets and have big staffs get to them.

LEAD STORY: A “MAJOR” MOVE IN DIRECT AIR CAPTURE

This week, Occidental Petroleum, an oil and gas “major,” acquired Holcene, a direct air capture company. Rather than write the story myself, I asked Darius Mortazavi, who pens a fantastic newsletter on the chemicals industry (subscribe here), whether I could include his write-up here. Thankfully for my flu-fried brain, he obliged:

Links for more reading here, here, and here.

MORE STORIES ACROSS CLIMATE AND ENERGY TECH

THE GOOD

• Global EV sales rose 29% year-on-year in Q1, according to Rho Motion, buoyed mainly by China and Europe, though North American sales grew year-over-year, too. Link.

• The U.S. power system may have reached a new energy transition milestone in April, with cleaner electricity supplies approaching their annual peak and overall electricity demand easing during the spring shoulder season. According to Ember, cleaner power sources generated more than half (51%) of all U.S. utility-scale electricity output in March for the first time, a significant milestone, though fossil fuels still dominate annually. Link.

• Federal judges ruled against the Trump administration's attempt to freeze climate funding in two separate cases: one ordering agencies to "immediately" resume nationwide funding under the IRA and infrastructure law, while another blocked the EPA from terminating $20 billion in climate grants. Judge Mary McElroy wrote that while a president is entitled to enact his agenda, agencies lack "unlimited authority" to further it, nor do they have "unfettered power to hamstring in perpetuity two statutes passed by Congress during the previous administration." Link. Link.

I’ll keep saying it until I’m blue in the face: Autonomous, all-electric driving is here. So far, Waymo is crushing everyone (that I know of). Waymo accounted for ~20% of all Uber rides in Austin during the last week of March, according to YipitData stats obtained by Bloomberg. Austin is the only city in which Waymo has a ride-share app partnership (launched last month with Uber); it operates independently in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. Tesla wants to launch competing robotaxi services in Austin this June, but they’ve said they’ll do lots of things in the past that we’re still waiting on. Link.

• Another player to watch in autonomous, electric transport: Wayve. Based out of London, the company may benefit from U.S. tariff pressures that threaten other autonomous vehicle companies (like Waymo). The startup recently secured a deal with Nissan to integrate Wayve's "Embodied AI" self-learning software into its ProPilot advanced driver-assistance system starting in 2027. Unlike Tesla and Waymo, which manufacture cars or source components from China (facing potential 145% import taxes), Wayve supplies automakers with conversion software for existing vehicles. It has raised over $1.3 billion from investors including Nvidia, Microsoft, SoftBank Group, and Uber. Link. Link.

• We’ve been all over this one too: eVTOL rides by 2026 (still TBD but long been my bet): Archer Aviation, in partnership with United Airlines, unveiled plans for a New York City air taxi network using its electric aircraft to fly passengers between Manhattan and major airports in under 15 minutes. Like its competitor Joby Aviation, Archer still requires more approvals from the Federal Aviation Administration before launching operations. Link.

• Battery materials company Sila announced it started commissioning its silicon anode plant in Moses Lake, Washington, with plans to start producing materials in Q3 and “qualified production” for customers in Q4. CEO Gene Berdichevsky noted the company will need to raise hundreds of millions more in financing to build a much larger 100 GWh "world scale" plant down the “line.” Suffice it to say, American-made battery materials could well see a boost from tariffs and critical mineral restrictions from China (more on that below). Link.

• Elsewhere in domestic batteries, Lyten, based out of San Jose, produced the United States' first battery-grade lithium-metal foil using U.S.-made lithium alloys and U.S.-sourced lithium-metal, creating the potential for a fully tariff-free battery supply chain. The company's lithium-sulfur battery technology eliminates the need for nickel, manganese, cobalt, and graphite, addressing critical mineral vulnerabilities and Chinese dependencies. Link.

• New York City's new mandatory composting program collected a record-breaking 3.8 million pounds of compost in its second week, three times what was being composted a year ago and a 12% surge from the 2.6 million pounds collected in the first week. The success has led the city to open a new compost distribution site in Astoria, with sanitation officials expecting to give away more than 5 million pounds of compost to residents for free this summer. While this is all welcome, there is a lot of complexity to this story and to composing itself… ideally, a friend of mine who is the compost queen of New York will pen a longer piece on the developments here soon. Link.

• Microsoft and energy infrastructure firm Fidelis signed what they're calling the world's largest deal for permanent CO₂ removal, with Microsoft pre-purchasing 6.75 million metric tons of removal services over 15 years from Atmos Clear, which is building a biomass energy plant in Louisiana with CO₂ capture (BECCS). Again, love the ambition and offtake agreement here, but as long as Microsoft is functionally the only carbon removal buyer, carbon removal will never achieve anything within spitting distance of meaningful scale. Link.

• Scientists from Tohoku University, Hokkaido University, and AZUL Energy developed a method to convert carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide fuel in just 15 minutes, dramatically faster than what was previously a 24-hour process. The system uses cobalt phthalocyanine as a catalyst on gas diffusion electrodes and maintains stable performance for 144 hours at a current density of 150 mA/cm², exceeding industrial efficiency benchmarks and potentially advancing carbon capture and utilization technology. Link.

THE INBETWEENS

• Here’s one where I’m gonna call “WRONG,” full stop. According to a report from the International Energy Agency published last week, electricity demand from data centers is forecast to double by the end of the decade. Happy to bet anyone any amount that won’t come to fruition. Call me in 5 years. For more on why, see my past writing here.

• President Trump signed a memorandum on Tuesday ordering "maximum use of technology in environmental review and permitting process for infrastructure projects," directing the Council on Environmental Quality to modernize technology in environmental reviews. The Foundation for American Innovation's infrastructure policy director, Thomas Hochman, praised the move, while following February's executive order that gutted CEQ's authority over NEPA, which Sierra Club's senior attorney called "rash, unlawful, and unwise." Critics warn that while expedited permitting could benefit clean energy projects, the Trump administration may prioritize fossil fuel infrastructure. Link.

• A record-high 48% of U.S. adults anticipate that global warming will pose a serious threat to themselves or their way of life, according to a new Gallup poll, up from 44% last year and the highest since polling began in 1997. The poll also found that 63% believed the effects of global warming had already begun, effectively matching the all-time high of 62% recorded in 2017. That said, 41% believe news coverage exaggerates the seriousness of global warming, the highest level in a decade. In a separate poll, of the 16,000 Americans ages 16-25 surveyed, 85% of respondents reported feeling “at least moderately worried,” and 58% reported feeling "very or extremely worried" about climate change and its impacts. Link. Link.

• As covered in our lead story, Occidental Petroleum acquired direct air capture startup Holocene for an undisclosed sum. Holocene's DAC process uses amino acids to absorb CO₂ and bis‑iminoguanidines to precipitate carbonate crystals that release CO₂ with low-grade heat (70-100°C), purportedly requiring less energy than alternative DAC methods. Oxy bought another DAC startup, Carbon Engineering, in 2023 for $1.1 billion. Link.

• The International Energy Agency slashed its 2025 oil demand growth estimate by roughly 30%, now seeing global thirst rising by just 730,000 barrels per day this year and 690,000 bpd in 2026, noting that trade tensions have "negatively impacted the economic outlook." Goldman Sachs still sees the world's oil thirst rising even less quickly (by just 300,000 bpd) this year. Link. Link.

• Another tariff tit-for-tat: MP Materials (full disclosure, I’m a long-time and long-term equity stock holder here), which operates the only rare earth mine and processing facility in the U.S., said it will halt sales of its rare earth elements to China in response to Beijing's export controls, calling selling materials under 125% tariffs "neither commercially rational nor aligned with America's national interest." The company said manufacturers across critical industries have "urgently reached out in search of a secure, resilient source of materials and magnets." Link.

• BP shareholders, including UK pension provider National Employment Savings Trust and financial services company Legal & General, announced plans to vote against the re-election of company chairman Helge Lund, citing the company's retreat from its self-set goals (remember, “green larping!”) to cut oil and gas production after recording record profits. Link.

THE BAD

• Nearly $8 billion in private sector clean energy investments were canceled, closed, or downsized in the first three months of the year, according to clean energy business group E2, more than 3x the total investments canceled over the previous 30 months. Cuts include examples like Bosch's suspension of a $200 million hydrogen fuel cell factory in South Carolina, T1 Energy's cancellation of a $2.6 billion battery factory in Georgia, and KORE Power's cancellation of a $1.2 billion battery plant in Arizona. Link.

• The Trump Admin ordered an immediate halt to construction of Equinor's Empire Wind project off New York's coast, the first time it has stopped an offshore wind project that’s already under construction. The 810-megawatt project would offer more than 1 million mechanical horsepower (I find this a more appreciable analogy than “would power 500,000 homes”) and was one of the U.S.'s best hopes at getting serious offshore wind capacity online soon, having secured all necessary federal permits.

NY Governor Kathy Hochul vows to fight the "federal overreach," while Interior Secretary Doug Burgum alleges the project was "rushed through by the prior administration without sufficient analysis," though the project spent 46.4 months in the federal permitting process, longer than the 41.7-month average.

Tl;dr? The Trump Admin just hates wind; it ain’t that complicated. Which sucks, because wind - especially offshore - was already in “deep” trouble two years ago (which I wrote about back then). The U.S. has only three other offshore wind projects under construction and has >10x less operating offshore wind capacity than Scotland does (a small country, though it has plenty of wind!). Link. Link. Link.

• As part of the evolving tariff and trade war escalation, China suspended exports of critical minerals and rare earth magnets to the U.S., effectively choking off allsupplies of countless central components for automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies, military contractors, and more in retaliation for the raft of tariffs imposed by the Trump Admin. China produces nearly all of the world's heavy rare earth metals and rare earth magnets, crucial components for electric car motors, drones, missiles, and spacecraft. At some point, some accord will need to be reached here, otherwise all kinds of foundational stuff is gonna break. And as per the fantastic Led Zeppelin song that rocked my teenage brain, “When the levee breaks, we’ll have no place to stay.” Link.

• Approximately 70 coal-fired power plants have been granted a two-year exemption from federal requirements to reduce emissions of toxic chemicals, including mercury, arsenic, and benzene, following President Trump's executive order aimed at boosting the struggling coal industry. Among the facilities receiving exemptions are Montana's Colstrip Generating Station, which emits more toxic air pollutants like lead and arsenic than any other U.S. facility of its kind, according to the EPA, and North Dakota's Coal Creek Station, one of the nation's top producers of mercury emissions. Link.

• The White House is also taking steps to eliminate NOAA's climate research arm, according to a draft budget proposal that would slash the agency's funding by $1.67 billion (27%). The cuts would gut the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and close the agency's climate, weather, and ocean labs and cooperative institutes. All bad, bad stuff if we hope to continue to better understand Earth’s (ever-changing, incredibly complex, intimately interwoven) climate systems. Link.

• Wait! It gets even sillier. The EPA is demanding information from Make Sunsets, a (two-person) company I’ve written about at least thrice and hung out with in person for its small geoengineering startup that launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere to cool the planet and sell "cooling credits." EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called the project an example of where "climate extremism has overtaken common sense." The agency stated it will "look into all our authorities" based on the company's responses to ensure clean air is maintained. Any claim made by the current EPA administrator about concerns for “clean air” at this point is so ludicrous it must be some effort to get us to understand, deep down, they’re just fucking with us. Climate scientist Daniele Visioni called the company's actions a "silly stunt" but noted he "won't enjoy seeing them attacked by a government that, at the same time, pretends 'clean coal' is a thing while pearl-clutching about 'polluting our air' with 10 grams of sulfate." Godspeed, Make Sunsets. You know I've got your back. Link (and many more I’m missing).

• The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, the lowest reading since 2022 and the second-lowest on record since the survey began in 1952. Consumers now anticipate prices will climb 6.7% over the next year, the highest expected change since 1981, reflecting worries that President Trump's reciprocal tariff policies could send prices soaring. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to rise in the next year has more than doubled since November, to its highest level since 2009. Link.

• Talk about froth: AI and machine learning startups captured 57.9% of global VC dollars in Q1 2025, according to the latest PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor, with an even higher concentration of 70.2% in North America. The sector raised $73.1 billion globally in the first quarter—more than half of last year's annual total—with $40 billion coming from OpenAI's recent SoftBank-led round. Freestyle Capital general partner Maria Palma attributed the surge to unprecedented FOMO: "The fear of somebody else winning your market has never been higher than it is now." Link.

• Hyundai announced it will temporarily suspend production of its Ioniq 5 and Kona electric vehicles in South Korea from April 24 to 30 due to U.S. tariffs and slowing demand. The pause at the Ulsan facility follows a five-day suspension in February at the same plant due to a decrease in backorders. The decision comes after President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and parts. Link.

• GM paused production of its electric Chevrolet BrightDrop delivery van through October, citing "market demand and rebalancing inventory." The decision will temporarily lay off 1,200 workers at its Ontario assembly plant, with 450 permanent job reductions expected when production resumes at lower levels in the fall. The company produced 3,500 BrightDrop vans last year but sold just 1,529, and has sold only 247 so far this year, with its $74,000 price tag cited as a reason for lagging sales. Link.

CURATED DEALS

Larger funding rounds:

• Mainspring Energy, based out of Menlo Park, CA, raised $258 million in Series F funding led by General Catalyst for its linear generators that use clean fuels like hydrogen and natural gas for commercial and industrial customers. Link.

• Crux, based out of New York, raised $50 million in Series B funding led by Lowercarbon Capital for what started as a tax credit marketplace but is growing into more than that. The company describes itself as “building central capital markets infrastructure for the next century of American energy and industry” and notes it aims to “build liquidity, efficiency, and intelligence into tax credit transfers and debt raises…” with “Powerful software, embedded proprietary data, and AI [to] help our clients and partners do more deals faster.” The company achieved profitability in 2024, its first full year in business, and says its network has already issued $1 billion in term sheets for debt products in the last quarter alone. Link. Link. Link.

• General Matter, based out of San Francisco, raised $50 million in equity funding led by Founders Fund to produce high-assay low-enriched uranium fuel, which will be needed for many next-generation nuclear reactor designs. Link.

Medium-sized funding rounds:

• Nyobolt, based out of Cambridge, U.K., raised $30 million in equity funding from IQ Capital and LocalGlobe's growth fund (despite warning it could run out of cash mere months ago) for its fast-charging battery technology designed for warehouse robotics and perhaps eventually EVs. The company made $9 million in revenue in 2024, up from just £67k the previous year, and anticipates another $150 million in deal value over the next few years (if it can make ends meet as it scales). Link.

• Iunu, based out of Seattle (and pronounced “you-knew”), raised $20 million in extended Series B funding for its commercial greenhouse tech startup that integrates AI-driven technology and sophisticated cameras and sensors to monitor plant growth and health to reduce inefficiencies and cut water, energy, and fertilizer use. S2G led. The company expects to triple revenue this year as it expands on its current base of 100+ facilities. Link.

• Conifer, based out of Sunnyvale, California, raised $20 million in seed funding led by True Ventures, MaC Ventures, and MFV Partners to form a new startup founded by former Lucid Motors and Apple EV engineers that will aim to develop electric hub motors free of rare earth elements for small mobility and industrial applications. Link.

• Arnergy, based out of Lagos, Nigeria, raised $15 million in Series B funding for its lease-to-own solar model. Breakthrough Energy Ventures, British International Investment, Norfund, EDFI MC, and All On participated. Link.

Smaller funding rounds:

• Hexium, based out of Austin, TX, emerged from stealth with $9.5 million in seed funding co-led by MaC Venture Capital and Refactor to develop laser-based technology to separate lithium-6 from lithium-7 for powering advanced nuclear fusion reactors. Link.

• Eratani, based out of South Jakarta, Indonesia, raised $6.2 million in Series A funding to expand its community-driven digital platform for smallholder rice farmers to share knowledge and resources to boost productivity, efficiencies (reducing methane emissions), and access new markets via precision-farming tools. Link.

• Collide, based out of Houston, raised $5 million in seed funding led by Mercury Fund. As per the presser, “Collide's AI-native platform retrieves and synthesizes data from authoritative sources to deliver accurate, cited, and energy-focused insights to oil and gas professionals.” Congrats, Collin & team, big fan! Link.

• Cosmic Robotics, based out of San Francisco, raised $4 million in equity funding led by Giant Ventures to build robots that help install large solar panels, aiming to address labor shortages and accelerate solar farm construction. Link.

• ClearCOGS, based out of Chicago, raised $3.8 million in seed funding for its platform designed to help operators reduce food waste and improve efficiency in kitchens. Closed Loop Partners led. Link.

• BeSirius, based out of Amsterdam, raised €3 million (~$3.4 million) in seed funding led by NAP for its AI-powered sustainability intelligence platform for metals, mining, and heavy industry companies to manage environmental, social, and governance data requests more efficiently. Link.

• Catchfree, based out of Zurich, Switzerland, raised ~$1.5 million in equity funding to make plant-based seafood alternatives like shrimp and fish burgers using ingredients like rice, soy protein, and algae. FortyOne Group and Stiftung Startfeld co-led. Link.

• Flock Mobility, based out of London, raised £1 million (~$1.3 million) for its B2B platform to help fleet operators improve efficiencies and reduce emissions. Gareth Williams participated in the round. Link.

• SALZSTROM (in Germany, literally “salt power”), based out of Vienna, Austria, raised over $1 million in pre-seed funding to make sodium-ion battery energy storage systems for residential applications. Erste Bank and others participated. Link.

Other funding rounds

• Kodiak, the seven-year-old autonomous freight truck company based out of Mountain View, CA, announced plans to go public in a SPAC deal that could value the company at $2.5 billion. Link.

• TPG, the private equity titan based out of Fort Worth, TX, completed a take-private acquisition of industrial and community solar energy company Altus Power for $2.2 billion in cash and debt via its TPG Rise Climate Transition Infrastructure, betting on a sector that has plenty of headwinds. Link.

• PE firm Ember Infrastructure, based out of New York, invested $50 million to acquire a majority stake in on-site power provider Caban (based out of Plano, Texas), which installs solar panels, battery systems, and fuel cells to power cell towers and other critical infrastructure via a "energy-as-a-service" subscription for installation and maintenance. Link.

Funds

• Excelsior Energy Capital, based out of Excelsior, Minnesota, closed its Renewable Energy Investment Fund II at over $1 billion with the Development Bank of Japan as the anchor investor. Link.

• Scalar International (New York) and Mergence Investment Managers (Cape Town, South Africa) plan to raise up to $150 million for a private equity fund to boost energy efficiency and install renewable-energy systems in 30,000 buildings in Africa, with about 30% of the money earmarked for South Africa (the sixth largest coal consuming nation in the world). "It's about African businesses really getting an opportunity to participate in getting onsite generation and onsite storage," said Hubert Gutsa, managing director of Scalar. Link.

OTHER ‘COOL’ STUFF

Here’s one more cool invitation to mark down on your calendar: The Queer Decarbonization Summit (June 23-25, 2025, Hudson Valley) will gather LGBTQ+ professionals across climate investment, corporate sustainability, renewable energy, building decarbonization, and carbon removal. The program includes introductions, guided breakouts, and forest walks, since the venue is a beautiful former monastery nestled in nature. Confirmed participants include leaders from Galvanize Climate Solutions, Generate Capital, Aligned Climate Capital, EQT Partners, Persefoni, Invenergy, and HASI.

Explore more here!

ICYMI - EVEN MORE COOL STUFF ACROSS THE COSMOS

Astronomers using the James Webb Space Telescope detected what they called the most promising signs to date of a possible "biosignature on exoplanet K2-18b, 124 light-years from Earth. Specifically, the team detected chemical fingerprints of dimethyl sulfide or dimethyl disulfide in the planet's atmosphere, molecules that on Earth are only produced by microbial life. tldr → This may be the strongest evidence alone that we’re not all alone in the impossible vastness of the universe. Fun to fantasize, but far from conclusive. Link.

Take it easy,

Nick